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Accident forecasts and annual accident statistic

Current information on road accidents is important. It permits early identification of new developments in order to quickly respond to problems of traffic safety.

However, the required, detailed, final accident statistics for any year do not become available until the middle of the next year. These statistics include accident-related values, type of traffic involved, location and age groups of the accident victims.

The graph shows the trend of the fatality rates Fatality rates: 1953 to 2018

To identify significant trends as early as possible, estimates are made at each year's end about key accident variables for the next year.

This is done using complex time-series analyses of long arrays of monthly data involving a large number of accident characteristics.

As a result, the Federal Highway Research Institute publishes forecast developments in these characteristics for the current year.

A general overview shows whether the long-term trend of rising vehicle mileage still agrees with the stagnating road accident rate involving injury to persons and decreasing fatality rate.

Deeper sub-divisions explain the background to general trends:

  • In which areas of the road network have long-term trends changed?
  • Which road user groups are expected to undergo significant developments?
  • Which age groups, e.g. children, senior citizens or young drivers, exhibit positive or negative trends?

The Federal Highway Research Institute publishes forecasts in a press release at the end of each year.